LONDON / ConSynSer / – According to Reuters, on Wednesday, October 21, Brent crude futures increased by $1.21 to reach $110 per barrel, as geopolitical concerns in the Middle East continued to impact markets. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude gained more than $1, climbing to $99 a barrel. Early trading saw prices supported by new incidents involving tankers and Saudi energy installations, although later gains were moderated by data indicating a recovery in Gulf export flows. Currently, Brent is trading nearly 80% higher than it was a year ago.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced that naval mines had halted three tankers traveling along routes not authorized by Tehran. A vessel was struck near Oman, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency. Yemen’s Houthi forces claimed responsibility for attacks targeting Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield. They also reported assaults on airports in Riyadh and Abha, fueling concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the trading session, market activity remained volatile. Brent prices initially gained but later retreated below $108 a barrel, while WTI briefly reached $100 before falling below $98. Record-high freight rates in the Persian Gulf persisted, exerting upward pressure on prices. Over the past month, Brent has appreciated approximately 8%. After falling to $100.34 in September, as reported by this source, the benchmark has maintained levels well above that threshold.
Hormuz exports approaching prewar volumes
Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing prewar levels. Data from tanker tracking firms Kpler and Vortexa reveal a rise in Middle East crude exports since summer. Producers have increased shuttle shipments via Hormuz and engaged in ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. In August, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports grew by 7.9%, reaching their highest point since March. These rising flows contributed to limiting the rally on Wednesday.
Market participants also analyzed recent US inventory data. Crude stocks declined by slightly over 3 million barrels last week, as reported by the Energy Information Administration. This decrease was less than the 4.9 million-barrel draw earlier announced by the American Petroleum Institute. Additionally, weekly US crude output decreased to approximately 13.27 million barrels per day from 13.68 million barrels the previous week, creating mixed signals regarding US supply levels.
Russian diesel exports and drone incidents
Russia is anticipated to dispatch its first diesel shipment to the United States on Thursday under an agreement between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin. Last week, Trump suspended Graham Act penalties on Russia, removing tariffs that would have affected Russian fuel exports. Meanwhile, Ukraine has intensified drone attacks targeting Russian oil infrastructure. According to Trading Economics, these strikes aim to prevent Moscow from expanding its diesel exports.
On Thursday, October 22, oil prices extended their gains following a drone strike that resulted in the death of two individuals at Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field. Brent surpassed $111 a barrel, and WTI moved above $99. The US also advised some personnel and their families to evacuate US embassies in Saudi Arabia. Market watchers continue to monitor Gulf shipping routes, Saudi supply levels, and Russian fuel exports for clues about future price movements.