NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The Conference Board reported that the U.S. consumer confidence index declined to 81.9 in September, marking the lowest point since April 2014 and continuing a three-month downward trend in household sentiment. The index fell by 6.7 points, with August’s figure being revised downward to 88.6. Data collection for the September survey, conducted from September 1 through September 23, revealed weakening in both current condition assessments and expectations for the upcoming six months.
The Present Situation Index decreased 7.9 points to 109.3, indicating a more cautious outlook on business and labor markets. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index saw a decline of 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive month of falling. This index gauges opinions on income, business conditions, and employment prospects over the next half-year. The declines in July and August were followed by September’s decrease, pushing the overall confidence measure further below the levels seen earlier this year.
The survey results from The Conference Board clearly show a shift in consumer sentiment regarding current business conditions. Only 18.5% of consumers described conditions as good, slightly lower than 18.8% in August. Conversely, those viewing conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Perspectives on the labor market also weakened, with 23.6% of respondents stating jobs are plentiful—down from 24.5%—and 21.9% indicating jobs are hard to find, up from 20.3%.
Inflation expectations climb amid sustained fuel prices
In September, consumers reported higher inflation expectations. The average 12-month inflation outlook rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, while the median estimate increased to 5.1%. Federal data indicated that consumer prices grew 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that gasoline prices increased by 3.9% during August. Additionally, AAA reported a national average of approximately $4.46 per gallon for regular gasoline on September 29.
Spending plans for the upcoming months also demonstrated restraint across various categories. On a six-month moving average, intentions to purchase automobiles and homes both edged lower in September. Expectations for expenditure on services such as hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks also declined. However, vacation plans remained robust, with 42.6% of consumers planning trips within six months, representing a 0.5 percentage point increase from August, primarily driven by domestic travel.
Outlook on employment and income dims
Optimism regarding business prospects, employment, and income prospects also waned. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated an improvement in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August. The percentage expecting conditions to worsen rose to 25.4% from 23.3%. Regarding jobs, 14.0% expected more opportunities, whereas 28.4% anticipated fewer available jobs. Income expectations also softened, with 17.9% expecting gains and 15.4% expecting declines over the next six months.
The survey additionally highlighted increasing pressure on household finances. Net perceptions of current family financial situations turned negative for only the second time since the measure’s inception four years ago. Confidence levels fell across all age groups and nearly all income brackets based on a six-month moving average. Toluna conducts this online monthly survey for The Conference Board, with the September preliminary results closing on September 23. The next Consumer Confidence Index release is scheduled for October 27.